2021 REPORT
The residential sector in Spain
The residential sector in Spain
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS WITH EXPERT INSIGHT FROM THE COLLIERS TEAM
After almost two years of the pandemic, what seemed to be a dramatic situation for the residential sector in the mid-2020, went better than expected. Despite all the difficulties, the analysis contained in our Residential Report reflects a strong sector that has been able to adapt itself to a difficult environment and has responded to complex problems with existing limitations.
The overall market situation is positive, but we must not forget that there are important challenges the sector must face in the short term, such as, for example, the increase in construction costs, the lack of vacant land in certain locations, the decarbonization of buildings, the shortage of skilled workforce or the draft of the new Housing Law that is intended to be approved in the coming year
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Once again Colliers wants to provide developers, investors and financing entities with a highly useful tool, anticipating challenges and opportunities and focusing on the main markets.
The residential sector in Spain
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS WITH EXPERT INSIGHT FROM THE COLLIERS TEAM
CONTEXTO MACROECONOMICO
La caída del turismo, la reducción de la producción industrial, la disminución del consumo y el aumento del paro son algunos de los efectos inmediatos que ha provocado la crisis económica originada por el COVID-19. Todos los países se ven afectados y España de forma especial.
ANÁLISIS DE LA DEMANDA
La crisis económica derivada de la pandemia provocará una contracción significativa de la demanda de vivienda, mucho más acentuada en la vivienda de segunda mano que en la de obra nueva. En 2021 la demanda podría contraerse un XX% respecto a 2019.
PRECIOS DE LA VIVIENDA
Tanto en segunda mano como en obra nueva los precios del mercado implican una tasa de esfuerzo para el acceso a la vivienda que se sitúa en el 30% de media para los distintos modelos de familia analizados.
ALQUILER: BUILD TO RENT
Mercado en alquiler en continua expansión. Madrid, Barcelona y sus áreas metropolitanas, las zonas más demandadas y el Build to Rent, como modelo de desarrollo se revela como la gran oportunidad del sector residencial.
TOP 5 LOCATIONS
Analizamos al máximo nivel del detalle el comportamiento de los 5 mercados Top del residencial, desde el nivel provincial y descendiendo hasta la realidad de cada distrito: Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Málaga y Sevilla.
MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT
Most of the macroeconomic indicators are positive and point to a change in the trend anticipating a strong recovery. However, there are uncertainties due to the emergence of new variants of covid more contagious and vaccine-resistant that makes us very cautious in our analysis.
DEMAND ANALYSIS
2021 has started very strongly. This first half has been the best of the entire historical series since 2008. The number of transactions was 63.7% higher than in 2020 and 10.67% higher than in the first half of 2019. Foreign demand also recovered strongly, reaching pre-pandemic levels.
HOUSING PRICES
In 2021 sales prices have increased again. Demand during the second quarter of the past year was strong and has continued to grow in the first half of 2021. This has led to the sale prices of new housing increasing on average by around 5% compared to the previous year and already slightly above pre-covid levels.
BUILD TO RENT MARKET
BTR is an expansive market with a very high demand and limited supply. It provides attractive yields with low risks, even in a context of historically low interest rates, but also it requires a high degree of specialization for its optimization. And this is the big challenge for Spain in the coming years.
CHALLENGES FOR 2022
In 2022, residential sector will face the new challenges such as the rising cost of construction materials, the shortage of skilled workforce, the depletion of land in certain locations and new housing market regulations.
